Predictions for the millennium

So ends one of the greatest American novels about growing up and going out into the world. As we begin the two-year countdown to the third millennium of the current era, the quote is also an appropriate preface to the season of predictions and prognostications.

In the Internet world, making predictions about the future can yield dangerous results. In a famous example of this, Bob Metcalfe (inventor of Ethernet, founder of 3COM, and columnist for InfoWorld) predicted that there would be a major outage in the Internet in 1996-1997. If it did not occur, he promised to eat his words — literally. It didn’t and he did, thanks to the incessant clamoring of his loyal readership.

In the last two and a half years, Java has come a long way. From promise to hype to reality, the trip has been a whirlwind adventure. Two years away from the millennium, however, Java is still in its infancy. It is time to look forward and see what stands on the horizon. What vistas will be before us two years from now?

Predictions for year 2000 Java

Let me throw caution to the wind and make the same promise Bob Metcalfe did. If each of the following ten predictions do not come true by midnight on the eve of the millennium, then let them be lunch.

1. Sun wins in court

   In September of last year, Sun sued Microsoft for breach of its Java license. Sun will win at least part of this suit. At a minimum, Microsoft will be enjoined from using the Java trademark and claiming Java compliance for its existing products. At the other extreme, Microsoft could be forced either to comply with Sun’s definition of an acceptable Java product or to remove any disputed code from Internet Explorer and Visual J++. The preliminary decision for this case should occur in the next month or so, and the issue will be resolved before the leaves turn in the fall. On its own, the decision on the Sun vs.Microsoft case will not be enough to make the promise of “write once, run anywhere” a reality. Other developments will.

2. Unified Java standard

   The marketplace wants a single, cross-platform Java standard. It will get it by mid-1999. One of two things will create the unified standard: Either the market will force Microsoft and Sun to converge their specifications, or a vibrant after-market of conversion products will emerge that will make writing (and executing) cross-platform code straightforward. This upcoming common standard will cover the core libraries, foundation classes, database interfaces, security mechanisms, and native interfaces. Also, widely-available bridge products between DCOM and RMI will appear — however these two specifications will remain distinct.

3. More Java programmers than Visual Basic programmers

   Estimates vary about the number of Java programmers in existence today. Current thought puts the number at between 250,000 and 2,500,000. The real number lies somewhere in between this huge range. (If there are 2.5 million Java programmers, the majority of them are still trying to figure out how to get “Hello world” to print on an applet.) Whatever the number is today, on the eve of the millennium the number of programmers will be at least 5,000,000. Once the backlog of “Year 2000” projects is complete, Java will be, by the year 2001, the dominant language — both in number of programmers and number of projects. The recent licensing of PersonalJava by TCI as a component of its cable set-top boxes will only accelerate this trend.

4. Write once, run anywhere

   With the appearance of a single unified Java standard in mid-1999, the goal of “write once, run anywhere” will be 95 percent realized. The remaining areas of incompatibility will be with DCOM/RMI and native code. Java will continue to close the incompatibility gap but will never achieve complete “write once, run anywhere” compliance. It will be possible to write Java code that executes across all major Unix and IBM computers. The same code will execute on Windows platforms using bridge products. Adapting the code to native Windows will require minimal effort.

5. From smart card to supercomputer

   By mid-1999 Java will be shipping as a standard on products ranging from smart cards to supercomputers. As a demonstration, Sun will write a program for each system that executes across them all. (Developers who try to do this, however, will be candidates for psychiatric treatment.) Still, the range of platform support for Java will only increase.

6. The E.U. embraces Java

   A major driver for the continued development of Java will be the European Union (E.U.). The E.U. will view Java as an opportunity to invigorate its high-technology community and become even more competitive with the United States and Asia in the areas of computing and telecommunications. An officially approved European Java will be developed, based on an enhanced version of the standard Sun JDK.

7. Java enhances margins at software companies

   Before the millennium, at least one software company will announce that its adoption of Java as a standard programming language has increased its overall gross margin by one to two points. This increased margin will occur as a result of decreased porting and maintenance costs for software products that are sold on multiple computer platforms. Any company that supports Windows, Unix, and/or an IBM platform is a candidate for this prediction.

8. Corporate consortium group formed

   Tired of the constant bickering by software vendors, a major new consortium of companies will be formed to address computing standards, licensing, and compliance testing. The group will consist of corporate IT and purchasing representatives. The consortium will embrace Java and add its voice to the development of a unified standard.

9. IBM becomes the largest supplier of Java-based products

   IBM will be the largest supplier of Java-based products in both unit and dollar volume. Java will enable IBM to announce software products that run on all of its disparate computer platforms without modification. Java will add at least one gross margin point to IBM’s software business unit by the year 2000.

10. Java creates one new major software company in Russia, India, or China

    As cellular telephones have enabled many emerging countries to leap forward economically without the burden of building a large telecommunications infrastructure, so too with Java. By the year 2000, Java will enable at least one company from Russia, India, or China to qualify for a ranking as one of

    Software Magazine

    ‘s top 100 companies.

Conclusion

Some of these predictions seem to have a reasonably good chance of occurring. Others are highly speculative and therefore are likely targets for that midday word meal. Regardless of the probabilities, the promise stands. If each of these predictions do not take place by midnight on December 31, 1999, then all of these words will be consumed in a public forum — by Bob Metcalfe.