Like the machines and assembly lines before them, drones are poised to drive many of us to the unemployment line My editor needs to give me a bigger travel budget. Pammy thinks so, too, for reasons I don’t quite understand but with enthusiasm that’s disconcerting. I’m not so sad that I missed SXSW, but I regret not being able to attend DroneCon, otherwise known as the Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International, partly due to a panic attack brought on by a “60 Minutes” segment on the mushrooming drone industry. Recently, Bill Gates was quoted warning the world that software and robotics will obviate the need for many blue collar jobs in the next 20 years. Software substitution, whether it’s for drivers or waiters or nurses, it’s progressing. Technology over time will reduce demand for jobs, particularly at the lower end of skill set[s]. Twenty years from now, labor demand for lots of skill sets will be substantially lower. I don’t think people have that in their mental model. I think he’s right. But I also think there’s more at stake than blue collar gigs, and drones — not software — will be the cause. For one, there’s the segment of the job market for which I have little sympathy: the intelligence community. Obviously, you need fewer spies if drones with silent propellers can sneak up to a citizen’s window and snap a high-res pic of his indiscretions. I know what you’re thinking: “Aww, poor spies — too bad, so sad.” But I think there are plenty of other jobs Gates hasn’t considered. Pilots, turn in your wings Let’s start with one that’s rarely mentioned: pilots. Drones are exceedingly easy to operate, if you believe the manufacturers. What are highly trained pilots supposed to do if joystick-clutching, pizza-snarfing high school kids can get summer jobs as drone drivers working for everyone from Amazon to Dominos? We need to consider all kinds of pilots, including those in the military. I agree with the general military principle of sending fewer pilots into harm’s way, but that’ll surely cut into Pentagon budget requirements for copter jockeys. It’s a little like when IT companies publish press kits gushing about private and public clouds. They cite all the benefits of that technology but steer clear of mentioning that on-staff enterprise hardware and server IT pro jobs are likely to thin out faster than Tiger Woods’ little black book. (Don’t kid yourself, Tigger. Lindsey Vonn is a world-class athlete. She catches you with a stroke penalty, and a driver upside the noggin is going to feel like a therapeutic massage.) Then again, I could be 180-degrees wrong and that particular gig may be in for a renaissance as long as you can upgrade your MCSE to an MCSE-D (Drone-capable). Get those skills, and you’ll be on the cutting edge of drone-net management — a hot job once wireless networking takes to the skies. Aerial admins Zuck’s plans to take the Internet to the clouds is just the beginning. All kinds of companies will move networks to the heavens, and that means a new set of IT skills. Can WhatsUp Gold handle a drone-net? Will NetScout have to invent a flying nGenius? Rest assured that some bean counter will do the math and realize that a cheapo drone armada up in the frosty skies is less expensive than paying for data center cooling costs. It also means a whole new cloud outage excuse for Google, Amazon, and Microsoft: “Our drone servers crashed … into Bob Fergenschmeir’s garage.” And what will Hurricane Katrina VI do to Comcast’s cloud TV? Or when DeepMind rebrands itself “SkyNet” and tasks Google’s drone army to implement you-know-what? According to “60 Minutes,” the FAA is quickly approving pro-drone legislation like vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication, which is no way enough to control the inevitable proliferation of fun-size flying machines. Imagine if Bob wants an Amazon DVD, a pizza, and a drone-order bride at the same time. Unless he’s living in a palatial estate, odds are high those little buggers will hit each other and claim collateral damage on the way down, especially if they’re remotely piloted by kids trying to prove whose drone is fastest. Down on the ground What about cops? Who’s going to beat you senseless with a baton for a traffic violation if flying drones can Tase you, grab you with rubber pincers, and fly your unconscious butt to prison? It may be great for the stun gun industry, but it’ll have a serious impact on overenthusiastic law enforcement and baton manufacturers. I wonder if they can replace me. Can a drone be snarky? I can certainly snark on them, like when drone makers insist calling them Unmanned Aerial Systems (UASs), Unmanned Airborne Systems (also UASs) or Unmanned Matrix Zappers (UAZs) so that we don’t associate them with military technology. Sorry, drone makers, you can call dog poop “popcorn,” but you still can’t cover that stench. That digression aside, maybe drones can turn photojournalism into an autosnark medium and put me out of what little business I have left. Hey, InfoWorld, forget about my increased travel budget. I’ll make do. Just don’t go looking for reporter-drones. Technology IndustryData Management