Don’t buy the hype: Dark horses can haul wagons as well as the others can

analysis
Feb 6, 20043 mins

In fact, some thriving failures fare better than their seemingly healthy counterparts

A representative of Advanced Micro Devices and I joked on the phone recently about analysts and their passionate convictions regarding the failure of certain corporations. The recipe for such analysis is simple: Look at the stock’s value over the preceding year, the company’s cash on hand, and the strength of the company’s competitors.

But based on this formula, AMD has been squashed by Intel; Novell has been stomped by Microsoft; all mobile device makers have been murdered by Nokia; and Apple just buckled under the burden of its own unprofitable innovation. Funny, isn’t it, that all of these dead companies are doing things that make news, whereas their competitors are trying to make news from what they’ve already done?

At election time, media analysts (the media watching themselves, heaven help us) wring their hands to lament those who don’t vote or who change their minds based on the pronouncements of network anchors. I don’t worry much about that. Dan Rather is a fine man, but he can’t get a president elected.

Nor do I worry about the impact that tech analysts’ proclamations have on IT’s buying habits. Recently posted quarterly results from Apple and AMD bear this out. Their health is improving as the blush returns to the cheeks of vendors and business alike. Because what matters is year-to-year improvement, it’s a gentle swim to the surface, not a rocketing up out of murky water. The upturn means that companies aren’t stealing the nest egg to pay the mortgage.

My advice for the year is to claim innovation, exploration, and invention for yourself instead of watching the slides from someone else’s journey to success. The best investment advice I ever heard was to put money in companies you like. We all possess an innate ability to judge character. Whether a corporation has a soul is a good philosophical debate over drinks, but each company certainly has a character, and judging it ought to be part of your selection of suppliers and partners.

Adapt the measures you use to judge people’s character. For example, your neighbor’s mistakes are forgivable as long as they’re made with good intentions, owned up to quickly, and addressed to minimize the effect on others. So a company that identifies bugs in its software or reports faulty equipment and then offers customers free patches, support, and replacement parts gets a nod. A company that does these things only after being hammered by the press or by angry customers gets a pass.

The ability to listen well and to incorporate others’ ideas is another measure of character. Product development and research should spring from the combined imaginations of engineers and customers, not from the marketing department and not as a response to a competitor’s actions. We like people who step aside now and then to let others share the spotlight. A company that is forthcoming about its sources of inspiration and the work it has drawn from others shows a strong character.

The externally visible character of a company is fostered by its internal, customer-centered policies and attitudes. If a company has these qualities and clings to them when times are bleak, customers with vision will realize that character and commitment trump financials and raw market dynamics.