IDC predicts Linux market worth $35 billion by 2008

IDC on Wednesday painted an optimistic outlook for Linux over the next few years, predicting that overall revenue for desktops, servers, and Linux-compatible packaged software will reach $35 billion by 2008.

The study reflects a measurement of shipments and the installed base of servers and PCs running Linux, which takes into consideration Linux shipped with new hardware deliveries, Linux running aboard redeployed systems, and instances where Linux is used as a guest operating system. With this new view, the server market for shipments and redeployments with Linux increases by 36 percent over net new shipments in 2004, according to IDC.

“When all manifestations of Linux operating systems are counted, Linux is clearly a mainstream solution,” said Vernon Turner, IDC’s group vice president and general manager of enterprise computing research. “We see a shift where Linux server operating environment deployments are moving to favor the use of enterprise server hardware. This transition is being driven by the increasing robustness of Linux and the increasingly critical nature of the applications deployed on Linux,” he said.

Another finding in the report shows revenue growth for packaged applications and infrastructure software running on Linux growing at an annual compound rate of 44 percent for the years 2003 through 2008. The dollar worth of the packaged software market will top $14 billion, according to IDC.

Other forecasts coming from the new study include the prediction that new and redeployed desktop systems running Linux will grow to $10 billion and 17 million units by 2008 and have an overall installed base of 42.6 million units. Also, the study says that Linux-based servers running as either a primary or secondary operating system are expected to go over the $11 billion mark and 3.3 million units by 2008.

The installed base of servers running Linux is 37 percent larger than the installed base for net new systems shipped with Linux as the primary operating system alone in 2004, according to IDC.

Data for the study was based on existing IDC research conducted on server and PC hardware, software, and other research programs in concert with new primary research. Some of the data inputs used in conjunction with IDC’s syndicated research came from a study funded by the Open Source Development Labs (OSDL).

A summary of the IDC report is available at https://www.osdl.org/docs/linux_market_overview.pdf. Users can purchase the entire report, called Worldwide Linux 2004-2006 Forecast: Moving From Niche To Mainstream, by contacting IDC at sales@idc.com.