Is Microsoft preparing us to move beyond Vista?

News reports suggest that Microsoft will ship its successor to the unloved Windows Vista “sometime” in 2009. Microsoft has been mum on Windows 7’s plans, though late 2009 to late 2010 has been the release date the company has consistently hinted at. So those “Windows 7 in 2009” news reports may mean nothing.

Or they may mean that Microsoft is quietly preparing people to move past Vista, an OS that certainly has its fans but that has an unprecedented number of people and IT organizations who simply would rather not go there, as InfoWorld’s Save XP petition‘s 106,000 signatures amply demonstrate.

Microsoft certainly won’t say — and for good reason, notes Gartner analyst Neil MacDonald. If Microsoft were to say anything about the next version of Windows, that would create uncertainty about Vista that would derail IT’s need for an assured direction, even if IT doesn’t like that direction.

Whatever Microsoft’s actual goals for Vista and Windows 7 are, the company can’t afford to telegraph them until it can provide certainty to its customers. That time will be a lot closer to Windows 7’s actual implementation date.

Microsoft has had many bitter Vista experiences, but perhaps none s bitter as promising seven years ago all these wonderful features in and visions for Vista. Microsoft couldn’t pull off that vision, so it delivered an abbreviated version two years after its intended three-year schedule.

The delay and the underwhelming new functionality hurt the company’s reputation, so it would be a fool to make big promises on Windows 7 today. Microsoft may be stubborn, and it sometimes loses touch with the outside world, but it is not a foolish company.

Expect Windows 7 plans to be kept quiet and vague until Microsoft is ready with the goods. Then we’ll hear loud and clear what Microsoft’s vision and plans actually are.

In the meantime, all Microsoft can do is put a brave face on Vista and quietly prepare everyone for Windows 7. And, I’d add, it should keep XP available as a face-saving compromise for unimpressed customers, as it has already done for low-capability PCs.