The sound and fury of Google vs. Microsoft

In this monumental rivalry, the stakes keep rising — from Windows Live to Google Android. Where will it go from here?

Here’s what it means to be the world’s biggest software company: Even if your iPod knockoff has sold so poorly it’s become the butt of hilarious satire, you can still afford to run a multimillion dollar ad campaign for version 2.0 and produce the prettiest ad on TV.

When you’re Microsoft, everyone is gunning for you, from vengeful hackers to nimble competitors. This week Randall Kennedy explores the war between Microsoft and its most formidable rival: “Thin vs. Fat: Google’s plan to kill Microsoft Office.”

Randy makes clear he’s not the sort of guy who follows the herd. “Unfortunately, we pundits still need something to talk about,” he quips. “This time, it’s not the Web that will usher in the new wave of post-desktop computing, but rather a rash of innovative services that leverage the more mature, Web 2.0 development model. And Google is leading that charge.” Check out Randy’s story, and I think you’ll find his analysis of our era’s most compelling rivalry to be firmly grounded in reality.

One aspect of Randy’s analysis I find particularly interesting: that Microsoft’s real reply to spreadsheets in the browser may have nothing to do with the browser at all. Instead, with its SoftGrid acquisition, Microsoft may be planning to offer its conventional Office software via desktop virtualization. With a big enough server farm and the incremental download tricks of application streaming, Microsoft could serve its fatware by subscription to the masses and provide decent performance in the bargain.

That fits in with Microsoft’s historic antipathy toward the browser. Years after the Web was in full swing, the company was looking for ways to make Windows and Office your portal to the Internet instead of the browser. Microsoft still waxes sentimental for that model today, as demonstrated by its recent “software-plus-services” initiative.

Randy has had his shot at handicapping the winner. As he says, the outcome may have to do with who stumbles worst rather than who executes best. Now we’d love to hear from you.