Fear and hope

The boardroom blues has the same refrain everywhere: “We’re in for a tough year.” How tough? Research firm IDC just lowered its U.S. IT spending forecast from 4.2 percent growth in 2009 to negative 0.9 percent. And a new poll of finance professionals, conducted by Adaptive Planning, warns that companies are “failing to forecast sufficiently during this economic downturn.” In short, we’re so screwed, we don’t even know how screwed we are.

On the other hand, we have a president-elect with a surprisingly detailed tech agenda who actually plans to elevate Chief Technology Officer to a cabinet-level position. At last, real understanding of technology may percolate to the highest levels of government. NPR commentator Mario Armstrong describes the shift simply: “Technology is usually seen as a spoke in the wheel. Now it’s the hub.”

[ Robert X. Cringely is still taking your nominations for Obama’s CTO. See his blog post “Who will be king of the geeks?” ]

So there you have it: a bleak if not disastrous year for tech accompanied by a dynamic new administration that promises to put technology front and center.

We can’t do much about the macroeconomic conditions, so now might be a good time to review the administration-in-waiting’s technology platform for glimmers of hope. Here are some cherry-picked points:

Ensure net neutrality. Some people argue that an Internet with tiered quality-of-service levels would be good for business. Sure, it could be lucrative for the major providers, but if you ask me, the destructive effect on small businesses and consumers unable to afford top-tier pricing outweighs any advantages.

Modernize the infrastructure. This is the big Kahuna. It has several parts, but the most important is to improve broadband speed and access (which, given all the talk of new economic stimulus packages, could even take the form of a massive public works program). Infrastructure modernization is essential to the future of cloud computing and digital commerce.

Invest in tech education and research. On the education side, there’s a general commitment to prepare students for careers in technology. The research agenda is a little more specific: Increase funding for tech R&D programs (not hard after recent declines) and make the R&D tax credit permanent.

Reform immigration. A temporary increase in H-1B visas can help ensure new technology is developed in the United States rather than elsewhere.

Other positions of interest include beefing up intellectual property protection internationally, reforming patent law, increasing electronic privacy, digitizing health records, and pushing harder for a level playing field in international technology trade. (I’m also enamored of the commitment to open government via the Web, a topic I’ve written about a few times over the years.)

Of course, in an economically downsized world, fewer resources are available to make good intentions a reality. And given the choice, most of us would prefer to have a rosy outlook rather than tech savvy in the halls of government. But we don’t have that choice, so I prefer to look on the bright side and hope that enlightened leadership will help pave the way to a brighter future for tech.