Is Oracle’s Fusion Fizzling?

analysis
Oct 18, 20073 mins

John Wookey’s surprising departure could be a sign that Oracle’s middleware push could be foundering. Betting against Larry Ellison’s acquisition strategy is always on the dangerous side. When he wanted to take plucky little Peoplesoft away from its kind-hearted management team (That’s a joke. Once Dave Duffield moved upstairs, the company was neither small, nor very friendly) everyone said he’d never win. They

John Wookey’s surprising departure could be a sign that Oracle’s middleware push could be foundering.

Betting against Larry Ellison’s acquisition strategy is always on the dangerous side. When he wanted to take plucky little Peoplesoft away from its kind-hearted management team (That’s a joke. Once Dave Duffield moved upstairs, the company was neither small, nor very friendly) everyone said he’d never win. They were wrong. And when the U.S. Department of Justice tried to squash the takeover, Oracle beat the odds, giving the Feds an embarrassing bloody nose.

Now Ellison is after BEA Systems, and there’s speculation that H-P or IBM (SAP says it won’t play) could start a bidding war and run up the price. I suspect that won’t happen, but I’m not placing any bets. Meanwhile, this week’s announcement that John Wookey is leaving the company poses yet another interesting question: Is Fusion, Oracle’s grand scheme to unify middleware it has acquired or developed over the last few years, in serious trouble?

I don’t know, and probably none of us will find out for sure until we head for OracleWorld in San Francisco next month. But something’s not right here.

First of all, the acquisition of BEA is surprising. The Fusion project is difficult enough. Why add yet another layer of complexity — and a very thick one at that — by adding WebLogic to the middleware mix? And I’m not altogether sure the deal would pass muster with the Feds.

So much for my opinion; Oracle thinks it can do it. And up until Tuesday, John Wookey, senior vice president in charge of apps development, was in charge. Neither Wookey nor Oracle are talking, but there’s speculation that Fusion is running late, and someone has to take the fall.

I hate saying I don’t know, but I don’t know. However, the Wookey-as-fall-guy routine rings true. Unlike PeopleSoft, Oracle’s management has never pretended to be anything but hard ball. If Fusion is in trouble, someone whose name isn’t Larry Ellison or Charles Phillips, is going to get spanked. Hard.

Fusion is due in 2008, and I wonder if it will meet the deadline. And if it does, will it really be a unified platform, or will it be a placeholder of glued-together applications?

The bottom line: Wall Street doesn’t like uncertainty. I’m usually rather bullish on Oracle, but I’d expect the market to take a wait and see attitude. And so will customers.

I welcome your comments, tips and suggestions. Write me at bill.snyder@sbcglobal.net.