Oracle Blows Away Expectations

analysis
Dec 20, 20073 mins

Finally. Some good news in tech. Oracle did more than give its own investors a great Christmas present yesterday, blowing away Wall Street's expectations for the second quarter. Larry Ellison and crew also raised the hope that we'll see broader strength in technology than we might have expected moving into 2008. There was also significant news for investors and employees of BEA Systems. Oracle pretty much declar

Finally. Some good news in tech. Oracle did more than give its own investors a great Christmas present yesterday, blowing away Wall Street’s expectations for the second quarter. Larry Ellison and crew also raised the hope that we’ll see broader strength in technology than we might have expected moving into 2008.

There was also significant news for investors and employees of BEA Systems. Oracle pretty much declared its efforts to buy the middleware vendor at an end. Oracle CFO Safra Catz said her company has been talking to BEA in recent weeks, but has concluded that “no friendly deal can be done with the current board or management.” That leaves very little wiggle room; it’s possible BEA shareholders will revolt and replace the board, but highly unlikely.

Speaking of Oracle’s results, Dan Morgan, a portfolio manager for Synovus Investment Advisers, said, “The quarter was huge. It’s very positive for software (as a whole) moving into 2008.” Indeed, the quarter was Oracle’s best in more than a decade, said Catz, who is also Oracle’s co-president.

But other savvy analysts I speak to regularly were more cautious. Peter Goldmacher, who covers software for Cowen, said that Oracle’s success is not necessarily a sign of overall strength in software spending. Goldmacher and Global Equities analyst Trip Chowdhry pointed out that much of Oracle’s success is due to its huge footprint across product and geographical lines. Chowdhry figures that Oracle and that other software giant, Microsoft, are likely to do well in 2008, but sales could be problematic for smaller vendors.

Assuming that Chowdhry is right about Microsoft, that also bodes well for companies such as Intel whose fortunes are tied closely to PC sales.

Significantly, sales were strong across the globe. There had been fears that Oracle might deliver good results on the strength of sales abroad, with the United States lagging in the wake of the credit/sub-prime mortgage mess. But that wasn’t the case.

New software license revenue, a key indicator of future business, was up 38 percent overall. Database and middleware revenue (Oracle lumps the two together) grew by 28 percent, while application licenses soared 63 percent. Those numbers should end concerns that Oracle’s exposure to the troubled financial services industry has become a major problem.

Oracle’s middleware business grew sharply as well, up 80 percent, though it wasn’t clear if those numbers included sales from Hyperion, acquired earlier this year.

Oracle claimed that at least part of its database gains was at the expense of rival IBM, and that it’s taking applications business away from SAP, but neither can be verified in a hurry.

Revenue totaled $5.31 billion, a 28 percent improvement from $4.16 billion in the same quarter last year. Analysts, on average, had projected revenue of $5.04 billion.

The company earned $1.3 billion, or 25 cents per share, for the three months ended Nov. 30. That represented a 35 percent increase from net income of $967 million, or 18 cents per share, at the same time last year.

More tomorrow when the dust settles a bit.

I welcome your comments, tips, and suggestions. Reach me at bill.snyder@sbcglobal.net.