Microsoft Yahoo Deal Springs a Leak

analysis
Feb 4, 20083 mins

In the arena of corporate combat, the well-placed leak is a venerable weapon. In the three days since Microsoft announced the blockbuster, $44.6 billion offer for Yahoo, there has been a spate of tasty tidbits leaked to the financial press. The New York Times and the Wall Street Journal, great places to get attention when you want it, are running stories about Google’s efforts to undermine the deal. I don’t actu

In the arena of corporate combat, the well-placed leak is a venerable weapon. In the three days since Microsoft announced the blockbuster, $44.6 billion offer for Yahoo, there has been a spate of tasty tidbits leaked to the financial press.

The New York Times and the Wall Street Journal, great places to get attention when you want it, are running stories about Google’s efforts to undermine the deal.

I don’t actually know who’s doing the leaking, but my guess the calls are coming from inside Yahoo or investment bankers close to the action — as well as Google. Both papers said that Google CEO Eric Schmidt on Friday (hours after the deal was unveiled) called Yahooer-in-chief Jerry Yang offering his “help” in keeping his troubled company out of the clutches of Ballmer & Co. Even more interesting, though, is this, and I’ll quote the Times story directly: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/04/technology/04yahoo.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

“People close to Yahoo said that the company received a flurry of inquires over the weekend from potential suitors. Some people inside Yahoo have even speculated about the prospect of breaking up the company. That could mean selling or outsourcing its search-related business to Google and spinning off or selling its operations that produce original content, these people said.”

Google doesn’t want this deal to happen. So anything it can do to muddy the waters with talk of possible anti-trust issues is on the table. Yahoo and its bankers have a vested interest in trying to push the $31 a share offer higher into the stratosphere. Google also has an interest in trying to make the deal even more expensive, just to weaken Microsoft, even if it can’t stop it.

It’s interesting that the co-author of the Times piece is Andrew Ross Sorkin, a terrific financial reporter who covers the world of deal makers and has great sources. It’s not hard to imagine an investment banker whispering in his ear.

I don’t think the deal is going to run afoul of the feds. Google has a huge share of the online advertising market, and would continue to do so if Microsoft and Yahoo combine. Conversely, a Google/Yahoo deal could easily be portrayed as anti-competitive.

That’s not to say that Microsoft’s offer won’t get scrutiny. The software giant has alienated a lot of people in Europe as well as here in the States, and the European Commission has been fairly hostile to Microsoft.

As to breaking up Yahoo, it’s hard to believe that the sum of the parts would be worth more than $44.6 billion. I think that Yahoo would be, if not crazy, ill-advised, not to jump at the offer. The company has problems. As more than one observer has said, “Take the money and run Jerry.”

Meanwhile, there’s some feeling on Wall Street that the deal may not be great for Microsoft’s shareholders. But that’s another story.

Disclosure: I have a small position in Microsoft.

I welcome your comments, tips and suggestions. Reach me at bill_snyder@inforworld.com