Microsoft to Buy SAP??

analysis
Dec 3, 20072 mins

Reuters carried a short item out of London today, reporting speculation that Microsoft has revived its effort to buy SAP. Wow, that would be a story. However, it doesn’t look like Wall Street gives the rumor much credence. Shares of SAP closed up a bit Monday, gaining just 60 cents, or 1.2%. That ain’t much. Another good indicator of investor interest was flat as well. Volume, that is the number of shares traded

Reuters carried a short item out of London today, reporting speculation that Microsoft has revived its effort to buy SAP. Wow, that would be a story.

However, it doesn’t look like Wall Street gives the rumor much credence. Shares of SAP closed up a bit Monday, gaining just 60 cents, or 1.2%. That ain’t much. Another good indicator of investor interest was flat as well. Volume, that is the number of shares traded, wasn’t much above normal, and after a flurry of trading in the first hours of the session, it dropped way off.

I was sitting in Federal Court back in 2004 when Oracle was duking it out with the feds over its planned acquisition of PeopleSoft. With little warning, Microsoft introduced evidence that it had been talking merger with SAP. I know its an over-used phrase, but most of the reporters and lawyers who were listening practically fell out of their seats, it was so surprising.

As you know, the talks failed. Remember, Microsoft said one issue was the complexity of integrating two very large — and culturally dissimilar — organizations.

As Eric Savitz pointed out in Barron’s earlier today, that hasn’t changed. It would still be very hard to weld a slow-moving, ERP-rooted German giant, and an American giant with roots on the desktop.

It would also be incredibly expensive. SAP’s market cap is $62 billion. Even discounting cash on hand that’s a huge buy even for Microsoft.

Is it impossible? I guess not. Some people may be thinking that since IBM is moving into apps (witness the purchase of Cognos), and since Microsoft’s enterprise applications are still small potatoes in this league, the takeover would make strategic sense. But I wouldn’t buy stock in SAP on the assumption it will sell at a premium.

I welcome your comments, tips and suggestions; reach me at bill.snyder@sbcglobal.net.