Software development predictions for 2010

If I had to choose one phrase to sum up what developers can expect from 2010, it would be “more of the same” — in the best possible way. This year saw the Web and mobile platforms rise to prominence as the key app dev technologies for the enterprise, and this trend will only accelerate in coming months, particularly as the two disciplines converge.

Chrome, SharePoint big winners on the Web

The Chrome browser may be the biggest winner of 2010 — expect its user base to skyrocket. Given Google’s rapid development pace, by year’s end Chrome should be a fully cross-platform browser, with Windows, Mac OS X, and Linux ports on equal footing, to say nothing of Chrome OS. The recent addition of extension support will further increase its popularity.

[ Before 2010 arrives, see how InfoWorld’s Neil McAllister did with his forecasts for the previous year in “2009 software development predictions put to the test.” ]

Who loses if Chrome gains? Not Internet Explorer — Microsoft’s installed base is too entrenched. But the small yet vocal group of Firefox users who are disillusioned with Mozilla’s development road map could be enough to trigger an exodus if their complaints grow sufficiently strident. As usual, this debate will play out first in message boards and then in the blogs, but it could heat up quickly.

A two-front browser war puts extra pressure on Microsoft, though. I somehow doubt we’ll see the final version of IE 9 in 2010, but a Technology Preview release could emerge before the end of the year. More likely, Microsoft will play its old trick of talking up the planned features of the new release before they’re finalized, as it did with Windows Vista. Expect rumors of the Gazelle project to resurface, along with talk to Microsoft Web appliances.

But one big win for Microsoft, I expect, will be SharePoint 2010. With this release, Microsoft has made a serious bid to crown SharePoint as the spiritual successor to Lotus Notes/Domino for rapid business application development — only this time it’s all based on Web technologies. Vendor lock-in or no, SharePoint 2010 is going to prove irresistible for many small businesses. Wise developers in Microsoft shops will start getting up to speed now.

Palm and Android join forces

Although Chrome looks to be a home run for Google, the future for Android isn’t quite so clear. Handset manufacturers promise lots more models in 2010, but so far, I haven’t seen customers fall in love with Android phones the way they do their iPhones.

All the more reason for Apple to mount a preemptive strike. I’ll go out on a limb and say 2010 will be the year Apple drops its exclusive arrangement with AT&T, and iPhones start appearing on other carriers’ networks. When offered a real choice, I doubt even die-hard Verizon customers would choose a Droid over an iPhone — but maybe Android 2.1 (or later) will prove me wrong.

Still, where does all this leave Palm? After the Palm Pre’s lackluster sales performance, I think we can expect one more last-ditch effort from the former PDA leader before it gives up the ghost. So how about this one: By year’s end, expect to see Palm phones running Android. After all, like Google, Palm loves the Web. And like Palm webOS, Android is built on a Linux core, so merging the technologies shouldn’t be too difficult. The combination of Palm’s UI expertise and Google’s market muscle could be just the thing to outflank Apple — and to keep Palm afloat another year.

Another idea: Since Apple still refuses to run a full Flash player on the iPhone, I’d be surprised if no one else saw that as an opportunity to give users what Apple won’t. Expect Flash to gain some momentum as a mobile development platform in the coming year, beginning with the release of Flash CS5 and continuing with an announcement from a major handset vendor or carrier.

Meanwhile, Microsoft is due to ship Windows Mobile 7 in 2010 — if it doesn’t get delayed again — but I’m sorry to say, I think this will be another bomb for Redmond. Microsoft’s current messaging around mobile is simply the wrong idea. Customers know that “delivering the results you expect across your PC, phone, and browser” is easier said than done.

The more things stay the same…

Of course, there will be more to talk about next year than just the Web and mobile. I expect one of the first big stories to come down the wire will be that the European Commission has finally given the green light to the Oracle/Sun merger. But the real news there will be that it’s business as usual for MySQL customers; in fact, rather than destroying the open source database, I expect Oracle to come up with an Unbreakable MySQL offering so attractive that most customers will forget all about alternatives like MariaDB.

Unfortunately, what the merger means for Java will remain unclear. Not even Oracle will be able to sort out the whole Java ecosystem in a year. But expect IBM to make a lot of noise about Java in 2010; now that Sun has slipped through its fingers, Big Blue will want to make sure everyone knows about its own contributions to the platform, including WebSphere and Eclipse.

Hardware will also figure into developers’ plans for the New Year. For one thing, I expect to see growing excitement about the possibilities of the ARM architecture, particularly as new device categories start to appear — including tablets running Google’s Chrome OS and gadgets such as e-readers. But the real winner, I suspect, will be OpenCL, which will emerge as the leading platform for GPU-accelerated parallel applications, on devices large and small.

That’s how I see it, anyway. But what do I know? I’ll see you all in 2010!