Is Apple eating into Vista?

analysis
May 14, 20083 mins

Interesting to note that Apple recently posted 51% growth year-over-year in their computer business. While Apple still has a modest 6% market share in the computer business according to IDC, that's double what it was a few years ago. Under Steve Jobs, Apple has defied analyst predictions who left the company for dead years back. For open source developers, the recent growth of the Mac may be less of a surprise.

Interesting to note that Apple recently posted 51% growth year-over-year in their computer business.

While Apple still has a modest 6% market share in the computer business according to IDC, that’s double what it was a few years ago. Under Steve Jobs, Apple has defied analyst predictions who left the company for dead years back. For open source developers, the recent growth of the Mac may be less of a surprise. I’ve noted for several years that open source developer conferences appear to be a sea of Apple laptops. (Not that Apple’s OS is open source, but it’s based on BSD, an excellent Unix implementation.)

No doubt much of Apple’s growth in the PC business is coming from the so-called “halo effect” of buyers who get an iPod or iPhone and then decide to make the Mac their next computer. Apple was smart to switch over to the Intel platform in 2006, thereby enabling users to run Windows apps on the Mac.

But I can’t help wonder if some portion of Apple’s growth isn’t coming as a result of Microsoft’s Vista debacle. Ok, maybe debacle is too strong a word. But all I hear is complaints about Vista: it’s slower than XP, requires more memory, no real new features. Forrester research reported at the end of 2007 that Vista has approximately a 6.3% market share among corporate users. Gartner has said Windows is “collapsing” and has pegged the number at 1% of corporate desktops and 3% of laptops. Considering that Vista was launched with great fanfare nearly two years ago, that’s a pretty weak outcome. In it’s last quarter, Microsoft announced that Windows sales declined by 24%.

Worse yet, Windows XP, Microsoft’s previous OS release, is no longer available from many vendors, and Microsoft is threatening to end-of-life XP altogether June 30. While Ballmer likes to grow about Vista’s popularity among new users, it’s not like customers have had much choice. Even my good friends at Microsoft don’t recommend doing an upgrade from XP to Vista on existing hardware. And if you’re going to look at buying a new system with a new OS, why not look at a Mac?

For most users, the dependency on Windows apps is probably at an all-time low. Basic email, word processor and spreadsheet are available on both platforms as are graphics programs, photo editing software, Quicken, games, etc. For many users, the PC experience is really about having a good browser and a fast internet connection.

As BusinessWeek reports in “The Mac in the Grey Flannel Suit,” Apple appears to be making inroads in the corporate market. More and more companies are giving their users a choice on what kind of computer to use. That can’t be a bad thing. Meanwhile, Microsoft has already started talking about how much better Windows 7 will be. Seems to me, we hears the same thing about Vista a few years back.

BTW, you can also sign up for InfoWorld’s “Save XP” petition at https://weblog.infoworld.com/save-xp/.

Update:BusinessWeek has a further story on Microsoft citing corporate customers that are planning skipping Vista altogether and waiting for Windows 7.