Martin Heller
Contributing Writer

What does programming have to do with football?

analysis
Aug 27, 20082 mins

The ESPN/TopCoder Winning Formula Challenge asks for algorithms to predict NCAA football scores from historical data.

I missed the pre-season myself: I tried to sign up with a very simple algorithm yesterday evening, intending to tune it up to something better in a couple of weeks, but I’d forgotten my TopCoder log-in credentials, and by the time I got my password reset the deadline had passed. (I’d describe my algorithm for you, but that’s against the rules. Hard-coding picks is also against the rules.)

As you can see if you click on the image at left to blow it up, the challenge is to write an algorithm to predict the winners and scores of this year’s NCAA football games, based on historical data assembled by ESPN. First prize is $50,000. Think of it as “programming derby meets office football pool,” with a much bigger pot than any office I’ve ever worked in.

Since many of TopCoder’s, umm, top coders hail from Eastern Europe, education has played a big role in the preparation for the challenge. Some examples: No, American Football isn’t the same as soccer. A fumble is important because the other team gets an unexpected chance to score and goes on offense on the next play. pass_att != pass_cmd+pass_int because a pass attempt can be completed, incomplete, or intercepted; further, a completed pass can sometimes be a touchdown pass.

According to the contest rules, solutions can be in one of five programming languages: C++, C#.NET, VB.NET, Java, and Python. There are both CPU time and memory limits. Apparently the best algorithms submitted so far get about 75% of their win/loss predictions correct, which would be more than enough to make real money in a state such as Nevada that allows gambling on sports.

Martin Heller

Martin Heller is a contributing writer at InfoWorld. Formerly a web and Windows programming consultant, he developed databases, software, and websites from his office in Andover, Massachusetts, from 1986 to 2010. From 2010 to August of 2012, Martin was vice president of technology and education at Alpha Software. From March 2013 to January 2014, he was chairman of Tubifi, maker of a cloud-based video editor, having previously served as CEO.

Martin is the author or co-author of nearly a dozen PC software packages and half a dozen Web applications. He is also the author of several books on Windows programming. As a consultant, Martin has worked with companies of all sizes to design, develop, improve, and/or debug Windows, web, and database applications, and has performed strategic business consulting for high-tech corporations ranging from tiny to Fortune 100 and from local to multinational.

Martin’s specialties include programming languages C++, Python, C#, JavaScript, and SQL, and databases PostgreSQL, MySQL, Microsoft SQL Server, Oracle Database, Google Cloud Spanner, CockroachDB, MongoDB, Cassandra, and Couchbase. He writes about software development, data management, analytics, AI, and machine learning, contributing technology analyses, explainers, how-to articles, and hands-on reviews of software development tools, data platforms, AI models, machine learning libraries, and much more.

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