Analyst house Gartner this morning “warned” that a “significant job loss” in IT is coming. In the press release Gartner did not quantify how extensive the losses would be by listing how many jobs it estimates will be eliminated, or what percentage, or what types of jobs, other than to say that the pinch will be felt both within enterprise IT shops and among external service providers. A query to the firm requesting those numbers was not immediately returned. The reality of job reduction in the United States is not a shock to anyone paying attention in the IT industry. The surprise, Gartner noted, is that even though offshore outsourcing is the most discussed factor in the media, the utility and on-demand computing models will put even more pressure on those jobs than outsourcing does. This glut is coming within the next two to ten years, Gartner said. Naturally, Gartner recommended that companies and individuals hone their skills in preparation, including strengthening business and IT skills, sharpening specialized knowledge of their employer’s models and processes, and focusing on how IT can drive the business strategy. The firm added that new skills increasingly in demand involve data, IT architectures, business process management and modeling, information flows and relationship management. There is some vague but sound advice there, no question. But other people in the industry argue that on-demand software will not eliminate IT but, rather, change those workers’ roles in IT. InfoWorld’s feature The End of IT As We Know It quoted Jason Maynard, senior North America software analyst at Merrill Lynch: Those IT folks and those resources are going to be reallocated to the stuff that adds value to the organization. The same story also quoted Eric Peterson, site technology and operations analyst at JupiterResearch, on the resistance of enterprises to losing control and personnel. Out of one side of its mouth, IT says ‘We’re too busy; we don’t have enough people to get X and Y and Z done.’ But it also says ‘We don’t want to give up any of the software that we already own because it reduces the size of our kingdom.’ All that said, we can definitely expect both utility computing and offshore outsourcing to eliminate IT jobs. Historically speaking the automation of processes typically does just that. Every employee in every industry should be thinking about how future automation will impact their job role, but now is not the time for selling fear about such job reductions. Once we see actual numbers — albeit predictions — that back up Gartner’s statement, then we can judge for ourselves how seriously to consider the firm’s words. Technology Industry