Analysts: OOXML to TKO ODF in late rounds

Position is everything when defending market share, and it just might be that Microsoft, both market-wise and technology-wise, has what it takes to ultimately defend its productivity app dominance from those backing the ODF document standard, according to a recent research report from the Burton Group.

The report, written by analysts Peter O’Kelly and Guy Creese, puts the power of XML — and the need for enterprises to exploit it – firmly in the decision-maker’s seat in terms of the long-term outcome of the heated file format battle between Microsoft’s OOXML and ODF, the document standard supported by IBM, Novell, and Sun, among many others.

Likening the document standards skirmish to a James Bond plot rife with “multibillion dollar business empires, global political intrigue, and even some conspiracy theories at the intersection of capitalism, communism, and democracy,” O’Kelly and Creese note that slower-to-move enterprises yolked to legacy productivity app content compatibility needs will prove instrumental in bringing ODF ultimately to its knees.

Not exactly new bad-boy Daniel Craig Bond fare. More like Roger Moore on codeine.

Many enterprises “just want to use what works for their needs,” O’Kelly and Creese write. “So, by migrating to Office 2007, many companies will let Microsoft make the [file format] decision for them.”

In some ways, O’Kelly and Creese’s analysis hinges on this inevitability, implying that the ODF camp might be better off lying down in the face of Microsoft’s will and market dominance and instead tap into OOXML’s openness to create other “productivity ecosystem” opportunities. Many, however, question Microsoft’s commitment to keeping the standard “open.” Burton’s analysts err on the side of taking Microsoft at its word, depicting Microsoft’s go-to-alone OOXML standards stance with regard to openness as well-intentioned.

“The debate and scrutiny are not surprising, given Microsoft’s historical track record as an extremely aggressive competitor and convicted monopolist, but it’s important to understand that Microsoft appears to be sincerely committed to making OOXML a substantive standard,” O’Kelly and Creese write.

Enterprise traction aside, O’Kelly and Creese suggest that XML’s power in assembling documents from disparate data sources, leveraging reuse opportunities, and facilitating querying will ultimately bring the ODF vs. OOXML battle to heel to W3C standards developments, to which both are already dependent. This shift, the analysts argue, is not simply because of the swift, successful, apolitical advancements of the W3C in comparison to other standards bodies, but part of a larger trend away from file-based content to hypertext models.

And that tips a significant chunk of long-term betting money toward productivity solutions with a SaaS twist, according to the analysts. Incorporating collaboration and communication technologies, the Web-centric productivity model is beginning to gain notable traction. Paying mind to the W3C will prove vital in accounting for the burgeoning tide of wiki- and blog-based content rising at many enterprises.

“In some respects, the web-centric approach represents something of a Copernican revolution for productivity applications,” O’Kelly and Creese write. “While the traditional model has productivity applications and related files at its core, the web-centric approach is centered on collections of webpages, and the pages may contain components for document, spreadsheet, presentation, and other needs.”

Good news for vendors such as Adobe, Google, and Zoho already deep in pursuit of a services-based productivity app model. But the analyst firm that last year declared deploying Google Apps a “career-limiting move for enterprise architects” remains reluctant to make a full-on hosted endorsement.

Instead, the analysts advise exploiting OOXML, using ODF by exception rather than default, and getting “out of the (traditional) office more often” by tapping XML forms-based Web-centric solutions, such as blogs and wikis.

A hedged bet, yes. But one still firmly in favor of Microsoft, sure to rankle those who support ODF.