Macworld Expo, brought to you by your remote control

news
Jan 9, 20064 mins

On the eve of Macworld Expo, it’s customary for me to lay out predictions for Apple’s product strategy. Since Apple is shifting away from the strategy it’s followed for the past five years, on the face of it, prognostication is unusually challenging. But I’m up to it; my hunches are stronger than ever. Even so, I’ll repeat that I’m not afraid to be wrong or to fess up to it. I like missing the mark; I learn from it.

Here’s my one-liner: It’s Intel time. That’s obvious to most, I think, but I see some angles that others might have missed or had too little interest or space to address. Note that I don’t know who’s said what–I don’t read other journalists’ work on a subject before I address it myself.

Apple has, with great care, firmed up its commercial PowerPC lineup in advance of this all-out consumer push likely to start in Q2 or Q3 in earnest. That’s when Apple will be calling in leases on x86 Mac development systems. Shoring up PowerPC heads off a walkout by PowerPC users who won’t see many of their commercial applications done as Universal Binaries (PowerPC/x86 combined) done at first. Moves Apple made in its upscale markets make everyone feel safe.

It’s Intel time. Apple wants to flood the market with millions of tubby iPods that plug into line current on one end, and your TV set (or the 52-inch Apple Cinema Display) and a surround sound receiver on the other. Not home computers as we know them, but plug and play entertainment centers. Digital media hubs. Way ripped set-top boxes. Programmable DVRs. Use the moniker of your choice.

Apple always thinks end-to-end, and there’s a compelling end-to-end scenario in play here. It starts with iPod. Video iPod makes you go “hmmm,” so you go to the Apple Store, and see iPod. During the iTunes demo you watch an expert operator import (rip) tracks from a CD to the iPod, and then download that Twisted Sister video and transcode it for playback on your iPod’s little screen. You’re going take. bringing you in on iPod sells you nicer headphones, endless trips to iTunes Music Store, and at least one Mac, an Airport Express base station, and so on, and on…

If Apple does an all-in-one entertainment box for a base price of and in a form factor similar to that of Mac mini–I picked that machine as a basis of comparison completely out of thin air, really, honestly, not–the consumer market would go apecrap on an iPod scale. I have yet to see any Windows Media PC I’d point a remote at. Even fully tricked out, a Media PC machine comes up short, software and total consumer experience-wise, to a Mac with iMovie HD, iDVD, Garage Band, iPhoto, Aqua, Preview, Airport Extreme, Bluetooth, and an army of about 4,000 dues-paying, frothing developers who are already equipped to kick home entertainment to the next stage in its evolution. I’m talking about that evolutionary stage where people start forgetting to show up for work. Until some entertainment technology comes along that ruins society, it’ll all just be stereo equipment to me.

If Apple tips toward making entertainment PCs, it comes into the game with the powerful in-house software and developer loyalty advantages I listed above, but it’s got more than that. The Mac platform exposes layered sound, layered images, dynamic transforms on images and video, high-definition video, multi-channel digital audio, OpenGL, X Window, Portable Document Format, scripting, inter-application integration, XML and SQL as core OS services. Java and scripting languages can hook straight in.

You cannot look at Vista’s enhancements in appearance and tools and declare that Microsoft has “caught up.” to Tiger. Perhaps you could use Vista to build something Mac-like in appearance, but even that would require re-education and pricey boxes full of 3rd-party libraries.

Apple can, once again, stand apart as the first and defining player in a new market. If Apple doesn’t, I will, since I like idea so much and the parts are so damn cheap. But I’m wagering that Apple will drop some jaws. And Steve, while I’m putting in requests, your new system’s remote has to meet a simple standard: I want to operate it with my eyes closed.