Cause for hope: Windows 8 gets the heave-ho in the next wave of updates

If independent leaks are to be believed, Windows chief Terry Myerson appears to be dismantling the Jekyll-and-Hyde monstrosity that is Windows 8, instead replacing it with a triumvirate of products that people and companies will actually want. Although the leaks don’t quite line up one to one, they’re close enough to warrant a great deal of optimism about the future of Windows.

Last week ZDNet’s Mary Jo Foley, quoting unnamed sources, introduced the waiting Windows world to code name “Threshold,” a wave of updates that will encompass what we now know as Windows, Windows RT, Windows Phone, and Xbox. In a bit of old-fashioned Microsoft arm-waving, Threshold is supposed to help support the same set of “high-value activities” across all the platforms, where “high-value activities” include “expression/documents,” “decision making/task completion,” and “IT management.” Forgive me for being more than a little bit skeptical about the bafflegab. I’d be ecstatic if Microsoft just got the low-value activities right.

The article laid out a timeline that makes a great deal of sense. The next version of Windows as we know it — Foley calls it Windows 8.1 Update 1, which sounds like another branding disaster in the making — should arrive in conjunction with Windows Phone “Blue” (still known internally as Windows Phone 8.1), in the second quarter of 2014.

Reading between the lines, the new Windows 8.1.1 (or whatever) will not include the Threshold putsch. Presumably, the new Windows RT 8.1.1 and Windows Phone 8.1 will start to bridge the gap between Windows RT’s WinRT foundation and the WinRT in Windows Phone. That fits in nicely with the prediction back in October that Windows RT 8.1.1 and Windows Phone 8.1 will have a much higher “API unity” in new versions due in six months — or second quarter 2014.

If those guesses stay on track, it means that by Q2 2014, the new Windows RT and Metro side of Windows 8 will actually be able to share some apps with the new Windows Phone — a scenario strongly predicted by the anticipated combining of the Windows Store and the Windows Phone Store.

Threshold goes beyond the Q2 2014 timeframe, and the gradual merging of WinRT in Windows 8.x and WinRT in Windows Phone 8.x (a sorry state that never should’ve occurred, but don’t get me started about Steven Sinofsky’s ego — or deadlines).

Yesterday Foley dropped another shoe, giving more details about Threshold — again, with attribution to unnamed sources. She talks about a single Windows core (which has been the holy grail of Windows development at least since Windows CE), with “a few” Windows versions built on top of that core. Specifically, Foley says her sources tell her that Microsoft is working on three primary versions. That’s where my optimism comes jumping out of Santa’s bag once again. Here’s what they look like:

A “modern” Metro consumer version. This version of Windows, dedicated to the WinRT API, would undoubtedly be designed to run on ARM and Intel-based devices — phones, tablets, phablets, and some PCs. It would be locked into the Windows Store. (I think of it as analogous to iOS, extended to run on some PCs, or Android with Chromebook kind of tacked on the high end.) I hope upon hope that Microsoft doesn’t call this version “Windows RT.”

Foley clouds the Metro version crystal ball by saying it “wouldn’t be optimized to run Win32 apps.” She quotes one contact as saying, “There’s the possibility that on some PC-like form factors, there may be a ‘desktop’ that is more easily navigable for keyboard/mouse users.” I readily confess that I can’t envision what such a detour would look like, or work like, or who would want to pay for it. In fact, it sounds a lot like the unholy abomination that we now know as Windows RT. But I digress.

A traditional consumer version. It would include a desktop and “be customized so that mouse/keyboard users will be able to continue to have some semblance of productivity and familiarity with Windows.” (I really like the “some semblance of productivity” part.) Unfortunately, it isn’t clear if this version of Windows would include the Metro side — in other words, if it’s just a Jekyll/Hyde 8.1 version with a new Joker face. Until there’s some clarification, this version is hard to get excited about.

Foley goes on to say that this version would be updated “regularly and often” through the Windows Store. Presumably, this version of Windows would follow the iOS and Android model, where updates arrive as they’re needed for both the OS and the apps. Given Microsoft’s current abysmal track record with patches, that has me spooked. But it’s possible that Microsoft will be able to lock down the new system better than our old friends Windows XP, Vista, 7, and 8.

A stodgy old-fashioned traditional Enterprise version. Let’s call it OFW, for “old fogey’s Windows” (or something similar). It has “all the usual business bells and whistles, like support for Win32 apps.” That’s exactly the version most of the world has been clamoring for — an updated version of Windows 7 to ease everyone into the Metro world. Foley throws a wet blank on the prospect though, by saying her sources tell her “The Enterprise SKU might end up being for volume licensees only.” Oy.

At just about the same time yesterday, Paul Thurrott posted a fascinating synopsis of the rumors he’s heard on the same topic. His SuperSite for Windows makes no bones about it:

I’ve not heard anything independently about the product versions in Threshold. But I do know about a few changes that Microsoft is planning for what my sources have described as “the next version of Windows,” which I assume is Threshold. (Though to be clear, they never used this name.)…

Metro apps running in windows on the desktop. As you can today with third-party utilities such as ModernMix, the next version of Windows will let users optionally run Metro apps in floating windows on the desktop.

Start menu. After bringing back the Start button in Windows 8.1, Microsoft will take the next logical step in the next Windows version and make the Start menu available as an option. It’s possible this will appear only on those product versions that support the desktop.

In other words, Microsoft is planning to build analogs to Stardocks’ Start8 and ModernMix into one or more of the Threshold (Q2 2015) versions of Windows. If that is indeed the case, it’s the biggest, best Windows story this decade.

Myerson’s the one to pull it off. Shunned as the head of Windows Phone when Sinofsky was independently cooking up the Windows 8 brew, he’s now in charge of all OS development. If the rumors are true, Myerson’s pulling together the mobile parts of Windows — consolidating the WinRT API — without castrating the old-fashioned Win32 desktop. If he’s blending a revitalized desktop with ModernMix, so Windows desktop users can run Metro apps on the desktop — much like the old Windows 7 desktop gadgets, but a thousand percent better — he’s hit a winner.

It reminds me of Galen Gruman’s Windows Red — still the best proposal for Windows’ future that I know.

One important footnote: I sure hope Microsoft buys Stardock as part of its move to a better future. I don’t know if there are patents to worry about or friction afoot, but the fact is that the folks at Stardock pioneered ModernMix and (like many others) also came up with a better-than-Win7 Start menu. Microsoft has a horrible, black widow legacy of killing off the developers that create new approaches to solve old problems. (This I know firsthand.) Stardock deserves a lot of thanks — and cash.

Who knows? Windows might actually become relevant again.

This story, “Cause for hope: Windows 8 gets the heave-ho in the next wave of updates,” was originally published at InfoWorld.com. Get the first word on what the important tech news really means with the InfoWorld Tech Watch blog. For the latest developments in business technology news, follow InfoWorld.com on Twitter.