Whose self-driving car will you trust: Google or the automakers?

Can the decades-long rivalry between Microsoft and Apple tells us anything about the future of the self-driving car? It can. When hardware and software are developed separately, costs often go down, but so does compatibility — a conflict that could bring dire results in a moving vehicle.

I’m no fan of robot cars, but like it or not, they appear to be on the way. Nissan just announced it plans to sell a self-driving car by 2020; GM, Toyota, and Audi have similar plans, although they have not set a target date. Google, of course, has been touting its vision of driverless cars for some time.

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It seemed likely that Google would concentrate on software while partnering with automakers to build the hardware. But a report at JessicaLessin.com reveals a different strategy. “Google, which has been working on software to help major automakers build self-driving cars, also is quietly going around them by designing and developing a full-fledged self-driving car, according to people familiar with the matter,” writes Amir Efrati, a respected former reporter at the Wall Street Journal.

At first the idea seemed, well, crazy. What does Google know about building a car? But the more I think about it, the more it makes sense. When driverless cars debut there will be almost no margin for software failure. After all, a system crash at 70 mph will bring a whole new meaning to the phrase “blue screen of death.”

Hardware and software will have to be perfectly integrated. The excuse that the automaker did a poor job of implementing the software simply won’t do. Ask yourself: Who’s equipped to do that?

Lessons of the PC wars Microsoft became famously rich and powerful by selling an operating system that a galaxy of hardware makers could license and use to run their own version of a personal computer. We know the results: a world of lunatic incompatibilities that made Windows notoriously frustrating to use.

Apple, on the other hand, kept tight control of both software and hardware development. The result: higher costs, but an arguably superior product. Even if you don’t like the Mac’s OS X, it’s hard to argue that it isn’t better integrated with the hardware it lives on.

Sure, there are exceptions to the rule. Samsung, for example, has done a great job implementing Google’s Android OS in its Galaxy smartphones. To turn the analogy around, Microsoft failed to make the Surface tablet a decent product even though it controlled the entire development process.

There’s no guarantee that Google will do it right. But if I had to place a bet on who would do a better job of integration — engineers out of Detroit (or Tokyo, for that matter) or Google — there wouldn’t be much doubt in my mind.

The auto industry is culturally and economically unequipped to move quickly. It has billions of dollars in fixed costs (think how expensive it is to retool even part of an auto plant) and a glacial development process. Integrating entertainment and telephony software into a car is one thing; building a car around software that can safely pilot a ton or so of steel at high speeds is quite another. As both Ford and BMW owners know, those automakers have done miserable jobs with the comparatively simple task of entertainment and telephony integration. Imagine how their self-driving cars would work.

Will Mountain View be the new Detroit? Google has tackled hardware projects before, with mixed success. Its first version of an Android smartphone, the Nexus One, was a mess. But now it’s building the Google Fiber network in a number of cities and learned to build a decent tablet after it fumbled the original Nexus 7.

No, Google isn’t about to buy an auto plant. Indeed, Asus builds the Nexus 7, which may be a model for what Google will do.

According to Efrati’s post, Google has been talking to major auto-components companies, such as Continental and Magna International, to manufacture a car under Google’s direction. The move came after Google’s talks with big car brands about incorporating its technology into their vehicles failed to yield a partnership. He also noted that the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper last week reported that Google was nearing a deal with Continental, one of the world’s largest auto-components suppliers, to create a self-driving car system. (Google has not commented on either of these reports.)

It will take a lot to convince me that driverless cars are safe or economically feasible. Still, it’s a fascinating idea and one that might require the expertise — and hubris — of a Google.

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This article, “Whose self-driving car will you trust: Google or the automakers?,” was originally published by InfoWorld.com. Read more of Bill Snyder’s Tech’s Bottom Line blog and follow the latest technology business developments at InfoWorld.com. For the latest business technology news, follow InfoWorld.com on Twitter.