New tune or golden oldie? Microsoft cues up the cloud chorus

“I think Nutella is really changing things at Microsoft.” This golden statement came from my mom, and it took me a second before I realized she meant Nadella. I love this, and it’s my new favorite name for him.

Of course, the follow-up questions commenced: “Why don’t you finally grow up and get a real job working for him?” Because this is a real job, kind of; there’s no way I can handle Seattle weather; he doesn’t know or care who I am; and if he did, I fully expect him to drop me into the shark tank underneath his office at his earliest opportunity.

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Mom’s partially right. It’s big news that Microsoft seems to be changing its philosophy, and Nadella is certainly taking credit. But I think it has less to do with his visionary decision making and more with policies the company has been inching toward for some time, considering the guy’s been sitting over his aquarium of man-eaters for nary three months.

I’m trying to get excited about it. But while it looks like a brave, new licensing world above the covers, so far, it’s really a desperation move on several fronts to make this year’s revenue numbers and net Nadella’s first Ballmer-sized bonus in July.

Microsoft needs to at least look like it’s getting on board the cloud-apps-only revenue trend with the rest of the Silicon Valley crowd, and that plan appears to be set in motion. But remember, it’s still Microsoft. Silicon Valley is a totally different culture where espresso mixed with blow is an acceptable substitute for plasma, and Rap Genius passes for “world-changing technology.”

Microsoft’s a little craftier than that. These moves are testing for new ways to make it rain with cash, while addressing the constant question coming from many millions of customers: “Why are you forcing me to get off XP, you evil, revenue-snarfing bastards?”

You call that an office suite?

Look at Office for iPad closely, and you’ll see it for what it is: three apps that let you think your iPad finally has a place in the office, but are really a dumbed-down experience designed to make you long for a full-featured, tablet-centric version of Office. Nadella figures you’ll eventually froth at the mouth, fling your iPad out the window, and snap up a sleek, full-Office Surface.

I’m basing this on early third-party descriptions of Office for iPad (sorry, I’m not polluting my iPad info-tainment toy with anything that even resembles work). The critics cite details like little integration between the three apps, no real touch support (WTF?), and (surprise, surprise) OneDrive as the only cloud storage option. That makes me want to use my iPad for the office about as much as I wanted to attend the cat rodeo Pammy dragged me to this weekend. It’s a little love for a non-Microsoft platform, but it’s passive-aggressive at best.

The first one’s free

Giving away Windows Phone in India is another strategy shift, and I suppose I’m surprised that Microsoft chose a market that large to try this little experiment, considering the licensing revenue it must bring in every year. It certainly looks like they company is serious. I’d have thought it would try something smaller first, like Luxembourg or satisfied Uber customers.

This move is coupled with recent reports that Redmond is considering a free version of Windows 8.1 for the general market, in addition to free licensing for phone and tablet devices, not to mention its direct support for Android through Nokia — unless Elop slipped that in as revenge for getting his CEO ambitions stomped. If the move stands — which seems likely, considering the new backhanded iPad love — there’s undoubtedly an Office for Android around the corner that’ll probably be as half-useful as Apple’s. Face it: A free Windows would be so basic that it’d disappoint the Amish and ask you to upgrade for every feature from the Start button to disk access.

At last, Windows XP Still, it looks like maybe Ballmer was more serious than we thought last year when he stated that Microsoft was moving toward a cloud app services model rather than its “traditional” strategies. We were busy beating on Windows 8 like a jungle drum at the time, and the comment reeked of flagrant marketing me-too messaging — no wonder we didn’t pay attention. Cynical codger that I am, I think there’s more immediate motivation, too. These moves will also directly impact one of the Redmond’s peskiest current problems: Windows XP’s massive installed base of Luddites.

I beat a little on folks complaining about XP’s end-of-life a few weeks ago, and I stand by it. (Six years! That’s professional-level procrastination.) I got a bunch of “you insensitive drunken fart silo” comments from people in low-income situations who can’t afford an immediate upgrade. Those love letters will be the subject for a post later this week, but it’s a situation that also relates directly to this new, no-license multidevice strategy.

If it’s one thing you didn’t have much of back in the early days of XP, it was options. Buy a PC and pay the license, or keep using your pencil and abacus. Today, there are all kinds of alternatives that make sense for a big chunk of XP users; tablets and the annoyingly named phablets are two that jump to my mind. Hook a Bluetooth keyboard and mouse to a tablet, phablet, or Giger-esque Facebook goggles and you have a totally viable platform for light productivity, email, and adult sites.

Sure, it seems weird that Microsoft omitted XP Compatibility Mode or Med-V support for Windows 8, which would have been attractive to those still stuck on the oodles of even-now XP-only applications. But if you think about it, why offer direct help if the company can ensure you remain screwed without its free licensing for low-cost devices masquerading as last-minute benevolence? The software problem stays on you; you’ll eventually figure something out; and in the interim, Microsoft will sell something glitzy, mobile, and constantly in need of costly new apps and upgrades.

Is all this a signal that Microsoft is changing its client-side licensing ways? It’s far from certain, and it’ll depend on whether a free license will really sell more phones and Surfaces, as well as shut up XP people while dragging them to a modern, moneymaking OS via soft, rhythmic language and shiny objects. It’s a bottom-line revenue question, so give it six months. That’s when Microsoft’s fiscal year ends and we get a real answer.

This article, “New tune or golden oldie? Microsoft cues up the cloud chorus,” was originally published at InfoWorld.com. Follow the crazy twists and turns of the tech industry with Robert X. Cringely’s Notes from the Field blog, follow Cringely on Twitter, and subscribe to Cringely’s Notes from the Underground newsletter.