A Windows 8 surge later this year? What are analysts smoking?

Claims proffered by professional prognosticators IDC are cropping up all over the tech and mainstream press. If you believe what IDC says (this week), worldwide PC shipments will continue to slump in the first half of 2013, but will rebound in the second half.

IDC’s press release quotes research analyst Rajani Singh as saying, “IDC expects the second half of 2013 to regain some marginal momentum partly as a rubber band effect from 2012, and largely thanks to the outcome of industry restructuring, better channel involvement, and potentially greater acceptance of Windows 8. We also anticipate a new refresh cycle momentum in the commercial segment driven by the end of Window XP life support.”

If you believe that drivel, you need professional help.

In the second half of 2013, all of the people who really wanted new Windows 8 PCs will already have them, and they will be craning their necks trying to figure out Windows Blue. A few companies may be foolish enough switch en masse to Win8 machines in the second half, but I’d be hard-pressed to name just one at this point. Yes, some companies will need to replace their XP machines, but they’ve been replacing dead XP PCs for years, and I see no reason to predict a big boost in second half of 2013 PC sales in anticipation of XP’s long-anticipated (but never realized) demise.

And a rubber band effect? Have you seen one? When’s the last time you walked into a computer store and had to fight through crowds of people, anxious to get their hands on a Windows 8 computer because they couldn’t find one in December? Sure, the Surface Pro wasn’t available in late 2012, and there may well be some pent-up demand for it — but a rubber band effect?

Then there’s industry restructuring. Dell’s on the skids; although the slide may be temporary, Dell’s sales certainly aren’t going to reek of roses and bubbly by the second half of this year. Hewlett-Packard has so many irons in the fire it’s hard to tell what the company is trying to do.

The most likely candidates for any increase in PC sales are the Asian manufacturers: specifically Lenovo, Asus, Samsung, and Acer. Even IDC expects that sales in North America and Europe will fall substantially in 2013. The rebound is projected to occur in Asia — which is rapidly switching to tablets, like the rest of the world.

The only restructuring I see in the non-Apple PC industry is with big-name U.S. manufacturers shifting as quickly as they can out of the PC manufacturing business, and Asian manufacturers putting more and more resources into building and selling non-PC devices.

As for “greater acceptance of Windows 8” in the second half of 2013 … I just wonder where these guys get their crystal balls.

A few months ago, IDC was predicting a 2.8 percent increase in worldwide PC sales for 2013. Three months later, the prediction now stands at a 1.3 percent loss.

In March 2012, IDC predicted “2012 PC growth [will] be modest at just 5.0 percent for the year.” In January 2013, IDC reported that PC sales had fallen 6.4 percent in 2012. IDC missed the mark by 11.4 percent in just nine months — and already had three months of data in the can before making that really bad prediction. Reflecting an amazing case of 20-20 hindsight, in January 2013 IDC said, “IDC had expected the second half of 2012 to be difficult.” Nine months earlier, IDC was projecting a 5 percent sales increase. Go figger.

Understand that I’m not dumping on IDC specifically. Gartner, another clairvoyant company in the tech crystal ball industry, has an equally dubious track record, as Ed Bott reported last year.

The simple fact is that nobody has the slightest idea how desktop and notebook sales will go this year. The old equations and modeling scenarios no longer apply. The world’s changing fast. Even old definitions no longer apply. (For example, is the Surface RT a PC?)

I’d be willing to go out on a limb. Here’s what I think: The computer industry as a whole is roaring — white hot. Total unit sales of computing devices in 2013 will be higher than just about anything you can imagine. If you accept the Canalys definition of a “PC” (desktops, laptops, tablets, but not phones, and the status of phablets is ambiguous), it wouldn’t surprise me a bit to see 15 to 20 percent growth in shipped units between 2012 and 2013. But in the very same breath, I have to say it wouldn’t surprise me a bit to see double-digit declines, year-on-year, for desktop and notebook PCs. Yes, that includes Macs.

Let’s come back early next year and see if worldwide traditional PC shipments are up 2.8 percent, up 1.3 percent, or down more than 10 percent, year-on-year. Care to make a wager?

This story, “A Windows 8 surge later this year? What are analysts smoking?,” was originally published at InfoWorld.com. Get the first word on what the important tech news really means with the InfoWorld Tech Watch blog. For the latest developments in business technology news, follow InfoWorld.com on Twitter.