Boring iOS 6, Android ‘Jelly Bean’ will rule in 2013

I’m beginning to think mobile operating systems are entering a lull period of minor updates and fill-in-the-cracks advances. That’s certainly the case for Google’s Android 4.1 “Jelly Bean” and appears to apply to Apple’s forthcoming iOS 6. After the wild advances in recent years, both iOS 6 and “Jelly Bean” are a bit boring. That reality speaks to maturity in the two platforms, not something amiss at Google or Apple. In truth, the pace of advancement for the last several years is not sustainable.

After all, neither OS X nor Windows has introduced many fundamentally new capabilities for some years. OS X updates have focused mainly on bolstering security, introducing touch and other mobile capabilities to the desktop, and enhancing Apple’s portfolio of bundled apps. Windows updates have focused on modernizing the operating environment, deepening connections with Microsoft’s back-end technologies, and — in the one radical, though poorly executed change — grafting on the Metro touch-centric interface.

[ Get expert advice about planning and implementing your BYOD strategy with InfoWorld’s in-depth “Mobile and BYOD Deep Dive” PDF special report. | Keep up on key mobile developments and insights with the Mobilize newsletter. ]

iOS and Android: Refinement is now the name of the game Both Apple (in Mac OS X Snow Leopard) and Microsoft (in Windows Vista) did execute major under-the-hood reworking, akin to replacing the engine in a good-condition car so that it can go another 100,000 miles, But the immediate effect on users was minor in both cases, even if it ensured the platforms’ longevity.

From what Apple has shown, iOS 6 for the iPhone and iPad lets you tag incoming calls for follow-up, enable Siri and turn-by-turn voice directions on some devices, put your device into do-not-disturb mode, and work with download links on the Web — all refinements. The big innovation is Passbook, an Apple service that creates a mobile wallet for tickets (airline, train, theater, and so on), but even that’s a variation of the mobile wallet efforts Google and others are undertaking.

In a similar vein, Android 4.1 “Jelly Bean” — slowly rolling out to existing tablets and smartphones — adds its version of Apple’s popular Siri voice-based search service, enabled user actions from notifications (you don’t have to open the app itself to respond), increased the number of supported human languages, freed its dictation feature from its former Internet-connection requirement, made widgets resizable and more easily removed when no longer wanted, and refined the graphics processing.

Most of these enhancements are good and welcome, but they’re becoming like PC updates: solidifying the existing base and enhancing it more subtly each time.

Windows Phone and BlackBerry lack solid footing, powerful apps Contrast this to what’s going on with the two remaining competitors in mobile: Microsoft’s Windows Phone and Research in Motion’s BlackBerry. Microsoft will formally unveil Windows Phone 8 in late October, finally adding key missing capabilities such as security and management that have kept Windows Phone out of most businesses. RIM promises to ship BlackBerry 10 by April 2013, though that OS has slipped so many times that I won’t believe it until I actually see it.

Both the Windows Phone 8 and BlackBerry 10 OSes require all-new hardware, unlike iOS 6 and Android 4.1 “Jelly Bean.”

BlackBerry 10 also won’t work with the widely deployed current version of BlackBerry Enterprise Server (BES), nor will the new BES — called BlackBerry Device Service (BDS) — support the Version 5 through 7 BlackBerrys that comprise today’s BlackBerry installed base. You’ll need to run both BES and BDS unless you retire all your existing BlackBerrys. The only good news in this muddle is that RIM will offer a Web-based console called BlackBerry Enterprise Service 10 that lets you manage the two servers from one interface, as well as manage RIM’s very basic Universal Device Console server (aka Mobile Fusion) that essentially replicates the free Exchange ActiveSync (EAS) capabilities in Microsoft Exchange to manage iOS and Android devices, but not at the level of an MDM tool such as those from AirWatch, Good, and MobileIron.

In other words, Windows Phone 8 and BlackBerry 10 are do-over mobile OSes, lacking the solid base of iOS or Android — and Windows and OS X. We’re approaching year six of the mobile revolution spawned by the iPhone; two platforms have become mature, and two others are still trying to figure out what they want to be. It’s pretty clear what that means: Users and the market will continue to deepen their ties to iOS and Android, Windows Phone will struggle to take root, and BlackBerry will struggle to reroot in its transplanted form.

Windows Phone has a shot, given that businesses will allow Microsoft the benefit of the doubt longer than most vendors. But even with security and management finally baked in, Windows Phone 8 is likely to suffer the same issue seen in all prior versions of Windows Phone: the weak app capabilities in its widget-oriented environment. The BlackBerry platform historically has not been app-friendly, so few users or developers have thought of it much beyond messaging and basic Microsoft Exchange and Lotus Notes connectivity. RIM says BlackBerry 10 is app-friendly, but no one knows for sure yet if that promise is true — or even relevant at this stage.

A core set of iOS apps has grown increasingly sophisticated and desktoplike, and some are migrating to Android. Whether you believe the tablet will replace the PC some day or simply become a common adjunct, capable apps matter. Neither Windows Phone nor BlackBerry have them. The apps that come with Windows 8’s tablet-oriented Metro environment — a version of the Metro environment in Windows Phone — are beautiful but not very capable, especially when compared to their iOS and even Android counterparts. That doesn’t inspire any faith that Windows Phone 8’s apps will be any better.

And can we all admit that the open source WebOS will be at best a hobbyist platform for a few thousand enthusiasts and the open source Tizen will follow the same “go nowhere slowly” fate as its LiMo, Maemo, and MeeGo predecessors? OSes built by committee — especially the hobbyist open source variety — are designed only for the committee members themselves. Just ask desktop Linux users.

In mid-2013, it’s all but certain that mobile have become like the PC market in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s: dominated by two platforms (Windows and Mac OS, then OS X), while hobbyist deployments such as Linux and, more recently, Chrome OS scraped by in the margins. Unless something dramatically major happens in the meantime, it’ll be Android and iOS dominating, with perhaps Windows Phone scraping by in the margins. That’s fine — iOS is a great platform, and Android is a good one.

This article, “Boring iOS 6, Android ‘Jelly Bean’ will rule in 2013,” was originally published at InfoWorld.com. Read more of Galen Gruman’s Mobile Edge blog and follow the latest developments in mobile technology at InfoWorld.com. Follow Galen’s mobile musings on Twitter at MobileGalen. For the latest business technology news, follow InfoWorld.com on Twitter.