With the Surface, Microsoft beats Google, not Apple

Last Friday, I drove to the Florida Mall in Orlando, walked past the Apple Store, and went right into the Microsoft Store. The Apple Store was packed. I would’ve felt pretty bad if the Microsoft Store were empty, but to my delight and surprise, it was even more crowded with wall-to-wall Surface RT tablets, every new make and model of desktop and laptop, all running Windows 8 and a crowd loving the launch event at the store.

I went from table to table, played with everything, then sat down and fiddled with the Surface for two hours. I loved the Touch Cover but preferred a tactile one. I found all the same issues with navigation that Galen Gruman mentioned in InfoWorld’s formal review of the Surface RT. I really liked the kickstand and USB port (why can’t Apple give us one of these?) But when all was said and done, I walked out of the Microsoft Store and into the Apple Store to request an iPad Mini. It wasn’t in yet — the first models arrive in stores this Friday — but I would have bought one if it were available.

[ Read InfoWorld’s in-depth review of the Surface RT tablet. | Learn how Windows Phone 8’s security compares to iOS and Android. | Windows RT and group policies: What you need to know. | Stay abreast of key Microsoft technologies in our Technology: Microsoft newsletter.]

Part of my problem with the Surface RT is the 16:9 form factor, imposed by Microsoft’s hardware specs for Windows 8 and RT. It felt too long, just like my Samsung Slate running Windows 8 does. I prefer the 4:3 size of the iPad. However, I appreciate that the length and size is what lets the Surface have a fully functional, full-size keyboard cover. Plus, my videos play perfectly on the 10.6-inch screen size and 16:9 aspect ratio.

I was a bit taken back by the Surface’s price: $600 for a 32GB model with the black Touch Cover. Yes, I know a 32GB iPad costs the same price, but I figured that Microsoft wouldn’t charge as much as Apple. Still, the Surface has a USB port and an SD card slot, so there’s no need to spend the $100 more for the 64GB model when a thumb drive or SD card is cheaper.

During my two-hour hands-on fest with the Surface, I kept asking myself how Microsoft expected to compete against Apple with Windows 8 and the Surface. Then it hit me.

I looked at my phone and realized that after three years I had switched to Windows Phone from Android. I didn’t go to iPhone (I’m a Windows guy, after all), but I couldn’t stay with Android. It always felt clunky, like it was open source — which in many ways it is. I wanted something more professional, and Windows Phone is perfect. It feels like the device was made by one company and thus works cohesively, even when I’m using third-party apps from the Windows Store.

Now I get it: Microsoft is not trying to take out Apple with its first punch. It’s simply looking to gain market share from the popular but more vulnerable Google. Think of it this way: A boxer steps in the ring for the first time. Does he go right up against the champ? No, he takes on lower-ranked contenders first. He builds up his experience before going after the title. Microsoft has the same strategy for its Surface tablets.

In the third quarter, 25 million tablets shipped. Of those, Apple has 57 percent of the market, and Android has 41 percent. This time last year, Android’s share was at 29 percent, according to Strategy Analytics. Android’s share has continued to grow, thanks to a string of products such as the Samsung Galaxy Note 10.1. With devices like the Kindle Fire HD (which use an Android fork counted as Android for the market share stats) and the forthcoming Nexus 10, we see Google and its Android allies battling to take even more market share from Apple.

But Google had better watch the backdoor because Windows 8 and the Surface RT — supported by the same device makers Google uses, including Samsung — will eat up not necessarily Apple’s market share but Google’s.

That means Apple is now fighting a war on two fronts to maintain dominance, and it’s already losing the war on the Android side.

Sure, we’d all like to think the battle will be decided by which tablet is better overall. But history has shown us that it comes down to marketing, to price, and to being “good enough” (not necessarily “best”). In this case, Microsoft has the pieces it needs to prevail in the overall war. As I’ve said before, Microsoft can win this because it can bundle Office 2013 (as it does in the Surface RT) and appeal to students.

The Surface is great for students. It’s easy to carry and easy to take notes on; one minute it’s a tablet, the next minute it’s your in-class laptop. Install the SmartGlass app and it can control your Xbox too.

Speaking of apps, platform partisans can fight about how many apps they have, but so what? This week, Google announced that its Play Store has as many apps as the Apple App Store: 700,000 apps. Awesome. But I need only 20 of them, and as long as the Microsoft Store has those 20, I don’t see the overall number being a deal-breaker for Windows 8 or the Surface. After all, how many of those 1.4 million apps are worthless junk apps?

Give this debate a year and watch how many apps there will be in the Windows Store. And watch how much of the market share each platform claims. Apple will keep going down; over the next year, Google’s will too. Microsoft will come out with more experience in this new fight, making it a stronger contender than Apple or Google likely expects. First Google goes down, then Apple sinks too.

This story, “With the Surface, Microsoft beats Google, not Apple,” was originally published at InfoWorld.com. Get the first word on what the important tech news really means with the InfoWorld Tech Watch blog. For the latest developments in business technology news, follow InfoWorld.com on Twitter.