Microsoft’s 64-bit netbook conundrum

Good news for fans of technological progress: Windows 7 is on track to become the first Microsoft desktop OS that’s as popular in its 64-bit (x64) format as it is in the legacy 32-bit (x86) format that has dominated PCs for nearly two decades. A recent survey by the folks behind the Steam online gaming network shows that, at least among gaming enthusiasts, 64-bit is now the more popular way to go, with the majority of gamers running the x64 variants of Vista or Windows 7.

Such a conclusion jibes with my own observations based on data collected by the exo.performance.network. According to records drawn from its 23,000-strong user base, more than half of Windows 7 PCs are running the 64-bit version. This is remarkable in that the exo.performance.network user base consists primarily of enterprise IT users, not hardcore gamers like Steam’s users. Moreover, it represents a significant uptick in 64-bit use versus that in Windows 7’s immediate predecessor, Windows Vista. Of the thousands of Vista machines monitored by the network, less than one in five are running the x64 edition.

Clearly, Windows 7’s high 64-bit adoption rate signals the readiness of both consumers and IT organizations to embrace a post-32-bit future. In fact, it’s tempting to conclude that, given these trends, Windows 7 is likely the last version of Microsoft’s desktop OS to ship with a 32-bit flavor. However, a potential stumbling block looms on the horizon in the form of the lowly netbook.

These ultraportables have dominated PC sales for the past 18 months, and the public’s appetite for such low-cost computing devices shows no sign of abating. All of which is great from a value-for-money standpoint — you can get a highly functional, mobile PC for a fraction of the cost of a traditional desktop or laptop — but it’s not so hot a prospect when you consider the netbooks’ impact on the Windows code base.

Netbooks are largely based on Intel’s Atom CPU architecture, which only recently gained x64-support, and even then only in the very newest netbook designs based on the company’s “Pine Trail” platform (many vendors continue to sell systems based on the older, 32-bit-only “Diamondville” platform).

Contrast this against the trend toward 64-bit Windows, and you begin to see the dichotomy: The most popular computing platform, by volume, over the past year and a half is fundamentally incompatible with the most popular version of Microsoft’s latest desktop OS.

Essentially, Intel has undone nearly a decade of progress by foisting a bastardized 32-bit implementation onto the industry at a time when virtually all of its mainstream desktop and mobile CPU products support x64 — and have since the turn of the century. It’s as if Boeing decided to outfit its first-generation 787 Dreamliners with old-fashioned piston-and-prop engines. Suddenly, every major air carrier is forced to stock up on old-style aviation gas when the world has long ago moved on to Jet-A, all because a (hugely popular and successful) subset of planes can’t run what should be the current standard.

Will the success of the netbook platform ultimately retard Microsoft’s march toward a 64-bit desktop future? It certainly seems that way. Without a dominant base of 64-bit capable systems, Microsoft will never risk abandoning its 32-bit code base. And as long as that code base exists, Microsoft’s attention will remain divided between it and the technically more advanced 64-bit version.

We’ve all seen what happens when Microsoft finally stops dividing its attention within an OS product line. The company abandoned 32-bit in the data center with the release of Windows Server 2008, and by every conceivable measure the end product is better for the change. Microsoft needs to apply these same lessons to the consolidation of its 32-bit and 64-bit desktop code bases, but it can’t do that as long as the volume PC platform remains captive to a legacy, 32-bit-only subset. Thus, the conundrum.

This article, “Microsoft’s 64-bit netbook conundrum,” originally appeared at InfoWorld.com. Read more from Randall C. Kennedy’s Enterprise Desktop blog and follow the latest developments in Windows at InfoWorld.com.