Android 4: Now you see it, now you don’t

I know that Google’s Android 4 “Ice Cream Sandwich” mobile OS is not a figment of my imagination. I know this because I have a Samsung Galaxy Nexus running it, Samsung Nexus S owners reported getting the Android 4 upgrade in December, and Asus Transformer Prime tablet owners began getting the update in mid-January. Plus, a small number of Wi-Fi-only Xoom users report getting Android 4 in the last few weeks. But that’s all the evidence there is pointing to Android 4’s existence.

The mobile OS was anticipated for much of 2011 and unveiled in October as the unified smartphone/tablet version that would bring business security, a slicker user interface, cool new capabilities such as NFC support, and a more integrated experience to better compete with Apple’s iOS. But we haven’t seen hide nor hair of “Ice Cream Sandwich” except for that handful of devices, and every new device so far this year is shipping with Android 2.3 “Gingerbread” for smartphones and Android 3.1 “Honeycomb” for tablets.

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Until mid-January, most Android device makers were consistent in saying to expect the Android 4 updates in February or March and a few in April for most of their smartphones and tablets — the models designed per the Android 4 specs. Now, there are no projected dates for most devices, just endless rumors on the fanboy sites. If I didn’t have a Galaxy Nexus in hand, I’d say that Google made the whole thing up in a silly attempt to slow iPhone 4S and iPad 2 sales for the holidays. (If that was the strategy, it didn’t work.)

Motorola Mobility, which makes a bevy of Android smartphones and tablets, had been the most conservative in its projections; Motorola generally takes pains not to overpromise, so it’s a more believable source than most. Its estimates all along have been more in the May-to-July period.

But last week Motorola announced it doesn’t expect to be able to offer Android 4 upgrades for its recent smartphones and most tablets until late 2012, and it may not be able to update them all to Android 4 — no explanation given. Also last week, when I met with AT&T and Samsung to learn about the Galaxy Note smartphone/tablet hybrid, neither could give me any idea as to when “Ice Cream Sandwich” might see the light of day on it or any other Android device beyond the Galaxy Nexus or Nexus S. They said they simply didn’t know.

The tech industry moves fast, except apparently for Android. The Android 3 “Honeycomb” OS came out many months later than expected, leading to all sorts of freakishly bad Android tablets based on the smartphone version of the operating system. Android 4, which is largely based on “Honeycomb,” seemed to come out much faster — except for the fact that no tablets yet run it and just two models of smartphones do. It’s not really here yet.

For all those users who bought Android devices over the holidays or after the Android announcement cornucopia at the recent Consumer Electronics Show, “Ice Cream Sandwich” may as well be a mirage. It might even turn out to be a lie in some cases, even though the device makers and carriers genuinely believed at the time they would be able to offer “Ice Cream Sandwich” upgrades to their newer, spec-compatible devices. All customers know is that 120 days after Android 4 was heralded as the next big thing and the reason to commit to an Android device — devices now owned too long to be eligible for free returns or exchanges, I might add — they don’t have it. And they have no idea when or if they ever will.

The notion of a delay between announcement and shipment is nothing new. iOS users, for example, excitedly waited several months between Apple’s July announcement of iOS 5 and its October release. But that release was real, covering all promised iPhone, iPad, and iPod Touch models.

The Android “Ice Cream Sandwich” announcement occurred four months ago, and now you have Motorola saying it could be another year before many customers get the update they were expecting. Those users won’t be excited; they’ll feel cheated and betrayed. If and when they get Android 4, any delight will be tempered with frustration, especially if they wait until October 2012. By that time, we’ll no doubt see another iOS version and the release of Windows 8 and its potentially paradigm-shifting Metro version for tablets. Being lapped is no fun.

It simply doesn’t make sense to unveil a major product in October, ship it on two devices in December, trickle out a couple more in early 2012, then keep everyone else on hold for an unknown period.

Last week, I asked Google about the holdup, but the company has not responded — it rarely does. Android device makers are also mum. And the blogosphere has been eerily silent beyond the usual China-based rumors. It makes me suspect the worst, given the industry’s propensity for rumors and leaks. I can imagine the following three legitimate reasons that “Ice Cream Sandwich” is more promise than reality:

• There’s something very wrong with the operating system or with the spec that the Android device makers used to create the devices to run on it. If so, that would be an incredible failure on Google’s part in managing its operating system development.
• Google is using “Ice Cream Sandwich” to force Android device makers to tone down or even get rid of their many skins and Android variations, and device makers are hesitating. After all, Google only open-sourced Android 4 in Novembver, so the device makers may have had not chance to rework their skins and other customizations for the new OS — and perhaps are having unexpected development issues that made their initial release estimates void. I can see why Google would want to reduce or even end the fragmentation that inhibits developer and business take-up of Android devices. But if that was a goal, it should have been made clear to both customers and device makers beforehand, so users wouldn’t be left in the lurch in a tussle over purity. I can also see why Samsung, Motorola, HTC, Acer, and the rest would balk at losing the ability to differentiate their products. After all, if every Android device is basically the same, it becomes a pure marketing competition or a race to the bottom of the price scale.
• The patent war among the mobile vendors may have touched on key Android 4 functions that would put anyone using it at risk. That war has grown increasingly nasty, especially between Apple and Samsung, the No. 1 Android device maker. There are signs that Apple may have recently lobbed a nuclear bomb into the fight specifically against the Galaxy Nexus — the “pure” showcase device for “Ice Cream Sandwich.” European regulators are now looking at whether Samsung and Motorola Mobility, two major Android device makers —  have engaged in unfair trade practices by using their “standards essential” patents — those that are made part of industry standards in return for “fair, reasonable, and nondiscriminatory” (FRAND) licenses — to charge Apple unfair license fees. And American regulators have indicated they share those concerns. The third major Android device maker, HTC, has also lost key patent claims against Apple in rulings by the Interational Trade Commission.

Google may be run by young folks who can lack the wisdom from life experience, leading to naive decisions or expectations. But they are darned smart “kids,” so my money is on the second and third possibilities.

Whatever the cause, for now at least Android users’ patience is wearing thinner for the “Ice Cream Sandwich” party. Apple’s festivities are well under way, and Microsoft has its invitations out. When all is said and done, buyers will go to just one shindig — and that won’t be the one with the host who failed to deliver on promises.

This article, “Android 4: Now you see it, now you don’t,” was originally published at InfoWorld.com. Read more of Galen Gruman’s Mobile Edge blog and follow the latest developments in mobile technology at InfoWorld.com. Follow Galen’s mobile musings on Twitter at MobileGalen. For the latest business technology news, follow InfoWorld.com on Twitter.