Windows 7: The beginning of the end of the “Wintel” duopoly?

Uncharted territory. That’s what I call the Windows landscape post-Vista. For the first time in recent memory, Microsoft is set to deliver a new OS — Windows 7 — that isn’t any fatter or slower than its predecessor. In other words, The Great Moore’s Law Compensator (TGMLC), which I famously defined as part of my “Fat, fatter, fattest” article last year, has gone bust. Kaput. No longer applies.

[ What fate awaits Microsoft? InfoWorld lays out five scenarios for the post-Gates era in “What future is in store for Microsoft?” ]

I call it uncharted territory because, to my knowledge, this situation simply has no precedent. Virtually every new Windows version has brought with it up-rated CPU and memory requirements. The closest thing to the current scenario is the Windows 2000-to-XP transition circa 2001, and that one doesn’t really count because almost nobody was running 2000 at the time (Windows 9x was still the dominant platform for mainstream desktop users).

So, here we are in 2009, with a new Windows just around the corner, and (gasp!) there’s none of the typical panic about upgrading hardware to meet the new system requirements. If your PC runs Vista fine today, it’ll likely run Windows 7 just peachy tomorrow — the advantage of Microsoft not making any significant changes under the hood. (Use InfoWorld’s free Windows Sentinel utility to see if your PC can run Windows 7.)

Of course, this development opens up all sorts of new possibilities. For example, the idea of upgrading the OS on existing systems — normally a bad idea thanks to the TGMLC phenomenon — now looks like a viable option. In fact, if a system is less than 18 months old (i.e., shipped after Vista was RTM), it’s probably a good candidate for a Windows 7 upgrade. Just one of the fringe benefits of Microsoft shipping something that’s behind the Moore’s Law curve for a change.

Unfortunately, Microsoft’s newfound restraint is not without its detractors. PC hardware vendors, who long ago built their business models around the TGMLC cycle, are now looking at Windows 7 as a potential disaster. To be sure, the new OS will spur some sales. However, given Windows 7’s modest, Vista-like footprint and broad-based compatibility with its immediate predecessor, the typical TGMLC-inspired pressure to upgrade your PC may not fully materialize — or if it does, it will do so in a much weakened state. After all, it’s tough to sell customers on that new quad- or eight-core system when yesterday’s bargain-basement, dual-core designs are still perfectly capable of delivering adequate (in relation to Vista) performance levels.

Could the emergence of Windows 7 signal the end of the “Wintel” duopoly? With Microsoft moving toward an ever more modular, cloud-based future (post-Windows 7) — and with the less-is-more NetBook phenomenon stealing much of the current hardware mindshare thunder — the endless upgrade treadmill that has driven the PC industry for over a decade may finally break down.

Perhaps Microsoft should attach an advisory label to each new Windows 7 install DVD:

“Warning: This disc may soon become a rare collector’s item from a bygone technological era known as ‘The Great Personal Computing Experiment.’ Handle with care!”